site.russianato/risk-ladder

up checked 2026-11-12T04:39:33.368Z

Unclaimed · Unverified

Publisher-provided title

Russia–NATO risk ladder

Publisher-provided description

Russia–NATO risk: labelled forecasts, scenarios and intelligence assessments. Cite russianato.site.

Summary by lookupd

Provides Russia-NATO escalation risk forecasts, scenarios, intelligence assessments, methodology and source data for analysis.

Install

Claude Code, remote (streamable-http)

claude mcp add --transport http risk-ladder https://mcp.russianato.site/mcp

Codex, remote (streamable-http)

codex mcp add risk-ladder --url https://mcp.russianato.site/mcp

Cursor, remote (streamable-http) → .cursor/mcp.json

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "risk-ladder": {
      "url": "https://mcp.russianato.site/mcp"
    }
  }
}

Other clients: docs. Or tell your agent: Set up lookupd for me: read https://lookupd.com/agent.md and follow it.

Publisher-provided text

get_overview Start here. Annual risk for the five escalation levels today, a year ago and in one year (optimistic / baseline / pessimistic), plus average intelligence tone p
get_risk_ladder Annual risk of each level on a date between one year ago and one year ahead of the data date. Past dates use the published forecast archive; future dates use th
get_forecast_history Published Metaculus probabilities by 2035 for an attack on European NATO or a seizure of Baltic territory, with the annual conversion for each observation.
get_intelligence_assessments Public assessments by intelligence services and governments of 12 countries, newest first, with hand-coded tone from -2 to +2 for a military attack and for hybr
get_sources The 51 sources with what each says, how it is used, countries, check date and link. Filter by type (intel, research, method, forecast), country or text.
get_other_forecasts Prediction markets and other numeric forecasts with a different event or horizon (Manifold, Polymarket, Metaculus, Good Judgment Open, Atlantic Council), with c
get_changelog Significant changes to data, model and site, and the corrections history (what was wrong, what changed, who reported it).
get_methodology Level definitions, formulas, current assumptions with check dates, the verbal probability scale and what the model deliberately does not do.

Shows this live status and links here; updates hourly.

[![lookupd status](https://lookupd.com/badge/site.russianato/risk-ladder.svg)](https://lookupd.com/servers/site.russianato/risk-ladder)